Skip to main content
Recurring Trade
Sign in

What commercial hedgers are actually positioned for.

Every Friday, the CFTC publishes how commercial hedgers, large speculators and small traders are positioned across futures markets, using data as of the prior Tuesday. We parse it the moment it lands and normalize it into a signal you can actually read, not a raw CFTC filing.

Join the waitlist See what's inside

Free during Alpha. No credit card required.

Recurring Trade COT Reports market overview table with speculative positioning percentile, correlation and signal per futures contract

The CFTC files it. We read it for you.

Market Overview every futures market, one positioning table

Indices, FX, commodities and rates: each contract's speculative positioning percentile, a structural correlation score, weekly change in open interest, and a plain-language signal, so you can scan for crowding without reading a raw CFTC filing.

  • Filter to indices & FX, commodities, or rates & financials
  • Reversal Short, Watch Short and No Setup signals flagged per contract
  • Weekly change, volume and next contract roll date, all in one row

Example: 5-Year and 10-Year Treasury futures are both flashing a "Reversal Short" or "Watch Short" signal, with speculative positioning at 98-100% of its range.

Recurring Trade COT Reports market overview table with speculative positioning percentile, correlation and signal per futures contract, filterable by market type

Positioning Heatmap see the whole futures market crowd into one corner

A treemap of every tracked contract, grouped by signal (Trend Long, Trend Short, Reversal Long, Reversal Short, Watch Long, Watch Short) and sized by relative weight, so extremes are visible at a glance instead of buried in a table.

  • Group by signal, type, or leave ungrouped for a flat market view
  • Block size reflects relative size, color reflects weekly % change
  • Spot a whole cluster of contracts crowding the same trade at once
Recurring Trade COT Positioning Heatmap, a treemap of futures contracts grouped by asset type, with a tooltip showing one contract weekly change, signal, positioning and correlation

Interactive Deep Dive one contract, every angle

Click into any contract for its alpha signal, positioning percentile and key metrics (price change, speculative and commercial Z-scores, net contracts, open interest and volume), plus a chart overlaying price against positioning so you can see whether crowding has lined up with reversals before.

  • Alpha signal and positioning percentile, with the metrics behind them
  • Price vs. positioning overlay chart, 3 months to 5 years
  • Extreme zones marked on the chart, so crowding is visible at a glance

Example: NASDAQ-100 mini futures (/NQ) are shown at the 100th percentile of speculative positioning, the top of its historical range, with the metrics and price chart the app shows for that read.

Recurring Trade COT Interactive Deep Dive for NASDAQ-100 mini futures, showing positioning metrics, an automated read and a price-vs-positioning overlay chart

Positioning History how this setup has played out before

A 12-week log of net contracts by participant group (commercial hedgers, large speculators, small traders), open interest and volume, so you can see whether the current extreme is new or has been building for weeks.

  • Week-over-week change and direction for every participant group
  • Open interest and volume alongside positioning, not separate
  • Win rate and average return over the 4, 8 and 12 weeks after similar historical setups

Example: At a similar positioning extreme, this contract history shows a 68.0% win rate and a +3.41% average return over the following 12 weeks, based on 759 historical setups. Hypothetical, based on past positioning extremes; it does not guarantee future results.

Recurring Trade COT Weekly Positioning Flow table and a historical win rate panel for similar past positioning setups

CFTC data, positioning signals and derived scores are for informational and educational purposes only, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security or contract. Past positioning extremes don't guarantee future price behavior.

About COT Reports

What exactly is the Commitment of Traders report?
A weekly report the CFTC has published since the 1960s, showing how much of a futures market is held by commercial hedgers (companies actually using the commodity or instrument), large speculators (funds), and small traders. It's a public window into what institutional money is positioned for, as opposed to what it says publicly.
What does a "Reversal Short" or "Watch Short" signal actually mean?
It flags when speculative positioning has reached a historical extreme in one direction, a level that has, in the past, often preceded a reversal as the crowded side is forced to unwind. "Watch" signals are approaching that extreme; "Reversal" signals have already reached it. Neither is a guarantee, just a read on how stretched the positioning is.
How fresh is the data?
The CFTC publishes the report every Friday at 3:30pm ET, based on positions as of the previous Tuesday's close. That means the market has already had three trading days (Wednesday through Friday) to move past the snapshot by the time you see it. We parse and normalize it within minutes of that Friday release, and the numbers hold until the next one, since the regulator only updates them once a week.

See this week's positioning.

Join the waitlist and we'll email you as soon as your access is ready.

100% Free during Alpha No credit card required